Market Comment

Market Comment

The Market Comment is published monthly and sheds light on current topics from the investor's point of view.

Market Comment

Geopolitics: Bonds and gold can help in temporary equity turbulences

The financial markets are under the spell of new geopolitical tensions. These have been triggered by a more hard-line policy on the part of the US re- acting to practices of Russia and China that it is no longer prepared to tolerate. In the medium term, equity markets are driven more by earnings and economic growth than by political events. In temporary phases of geopolitical uncertainty, bonds have historically performed well, while commodities such as gold have typically acted as a safe haven. Thus, bond and commodity modules are key components to hold as part of a complete portfolio.

Market Comment

Five Factors for Emerging Markets

Like all equity investments, emerging market equities come with risks attached – such as higher short-term volatility – but five factors are currently boosting the longer-term appeal of this segment of the equity market. These are as follows: cheaper valuations than the world equity index, historically undervalued currencies, higher weighting of important technology stocks, strong economic growth and rising commodity prices. They are particularly interesting as long as the US dollar remains on a downward trajectory.

Market Comment

Turbulent times – keep calm

The first few weeks of the New Year began strongly for the markets – too strongly, as it turned out. After global equity markets performed unusually well from a historical perspective in January, recording a rise of around 5%, a major consolidation (i.e. correction) has now taken place. However, this latter development should be viewed against a backdrop of long-term market strength in which no real market consolidation took place at all.

Market Comment

Optimism yes, euphoria no

Will there be a year-end rally in in equity markets in 2017?  But the importance of what actually happens in the remaining weeks of the year should not be over-exaggerated. Above all, investors should keep a wider perspective. And that picture gives us reasons to be confident.

Market Comment

Commodity prices at the crossroads

What are the medium-term perspectives for commodities? We give an overview of the developments of the past decades and the long-term influence factors which offer a positive outlook for commodities.

Market Comment

The outlook for Europe

How does the situation in Europe look? Before the background of Brexit and a number of tensions within the EU, its macro-economic situation has improved strongly. We give an overview.

Market Comment

Words, not deeds

Equity markets have moved up significantly since the election of Donald Trump. Can this be ascribed to his accomplishments? As the title of our latest Investment Comment implies, we beg to differ. During the month of September, deeds will be in demand and we therefore see the risk of market turbulences in case squabbling continues between the White House and Congress.

Market Comment

Robotics and Industry 4.0

Will the world be conquered by robots? Technological innovation affects many aspects of our lives. Robots used to be designed as slave labourers in the past, today they are destined for much greater assignments. The fourth industrial revolution has just begun, the "mega trend" is called "Industry 4.0", also called "the internet of things and services". Artificial Intelligence (AI) connects the virtual world with the physical one. What kind of potential do we attribute to this theme and how one can invest in it – these questions are addressed in our Investment Comment.

Market Comment

Animal Spirits

Business and consumer confidence have reached levels unseen in the last 10 years. Is this due to specific legislative proposals by the Trump administration or rather the manifestation of revived animal sprits on behalf of economic agents? We give an overview.

Market Comment

The latest on the emerging markets

After emerging market-related investments have again embarked on a positive trend, the question remains how the situation presents itself currently. We give an overview of the different investment categories and identify where we can see further gains.

Market Comment

La Peine

Will the election of Marine Le Pen for French president trigger investors’ sorrows? How big are her chances to win? Or may there be bigger risks for the European project elsewhere?

Market Comment

Glass half full

The movements on financial markets since early November have displayed a significant degree of optimism on behalf of investors. We state why we remain optimistic for equities in spite of considerable uncertainty in connection with the 45th US president, even if there could be a correction coming in the short term.

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