Our March market comment: More than a year has now passed since Russia launched its attack on Ukraine and triggered a war with global consequences. But what have been the demonstrable consequences of this war?  

Our February market comment: Inflation, stagnation or recession. Which term best describes the situation and represents the primary risk? 

Our January market comment: The surprising change of course in the coronavirus policy of China’s leadership has led to a significant recovery in Chinese and other Asian financial markets since December.

Our December market comment reports on possible parallels between the correction in equities observed since the beginning of 2022 and the major correction experienced 22 years ago.

Our November market comment reports on the increasing stagflation risks.

Our October market comment reports on the US mid-term elections of the US Congress at the start of November this year.

In mid-September 2022, our Chief Investment Officer, Gérard Piasko, and Marc Jäggi, Head Moderation at Radio 1, shed light on the impact of central bank activities on the current interest rate situation.

Our September market comment reports on commodity investments in times of above-average rates of inflation by historical standards.

Our July market comment reports on persistently high level of consumer price inflation and a new monetary stance.

At the end of June 2022, our Chief Investment Officer, Gérard Piasko, spoke with Marc Jäggi, Head Moderation at Radio 1, about the medium-term monetary policy of the US and Switzerland and the need for further interest rate hikes.

Interest rate hikes and historically elevated inflation are making “value” stocks even more interesting. We already pointed to their potential in April 2021. In this market comment, we shed light on the rotation that has commenced from more expensively valued “high-flyer” IT growth stocks towards more cheaply valued “value” stocks. Will it continue? Or will we see temporary breaks?

The financial markets hope that the Ukraine conflict will soon be replaced by “business as usual”. They appear to have got used to the war, as it has not escalated any further to date. Nevertheless, the current state of the conflict, which could last for an extended period, is set to keep inflation historically high. What does it mean for corporate profits and the global economy?

Since the start of the year, there have been clear signs from the world’s major central banks that they intend to embark on a marked, albeit gradual change in monetary policy. The interest rate turnaround is upon us, with the stimulus provided for global growth and the financial markets being ramped down.

Towards the end of March 2022, our Chief Investment Officer, Gérard Piasko, talked to Marc Jäggi, Head of Moderation at Radio 1, about the times of uncertainty stemming from the Ukraine war.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains high by historical standards. Russia’s attack on Ukraine is not only increasing nervousness and reducing risk appetite in the short term; higher energy costs and, should inflation remain elevated, higher financing costs via interest rate hikes could also see record-high corporate profit margins fall again. What’s more, the so-called “peace dividend” of the past 30 years is in danger.

In March 2021 we identified seven coronavirus trends. In this Market Comment we highlight a number of other trends influenced by the pandemic that underline the importance of higher-quality investments at times of interest rate and stock market turbulence.

The global economy presents a mixed picture at the start of the year. Up until recently all lights were set to green, but now there are a few warning flashes. We must be prepared for a slowdown in economic growth over the next few months and quarters.

In the last video message of the year from our CIO Gérard Piasko, he takes a look back at the performance of the global economy, which has staged a marked recovery during 2021. What forecasts are being made for global economic growth in the new year? Tune in now and watch!

Although its economy has returned to good health since the peak of the pandemic in 2020, the US is rolling out another economic programme with the primary aim of improving national infrastructure. This planned government expenditure will provide a boost to future technologies and help modernise America’s transport and electricity networks.

The impending process of “tapering” in the US, i.e. the reduction of quantitative easing (QE) as a tool of monetary policy, revives memories of the “taper tantrum” of 2013. Back then, however, the markets were not alerted to the plans of the US central bank (Fed) at an early stage, and therefore reacted with surprise.

In the current CIO video, Gérard Piasko discusses the supply bottlenecks and their impact on the global economy and inflation with Marc Jäggi. Listen and watch!

As the fourth quarter gets under way, are we at the turning point for both the economy and the markets? Have we already passed the peak in terms of the economy? The question of quite where we are in the economic cycle will by definition only be possible with hindsight.

China has changed. Whereas in 2020 the country was still clearly an engine driving economic activity and attracting investors, it has now become a negative factor for the stock markets. What lies behind this?

In our new CIO video, Gérard Piasko looks towards China, where Chinese stocks have corrected compared to last year. What are the reasons for this?

An important question for equity markets right now is how corporate profit margins will develop going forward. There is a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding this issue, particularly given a backdrop of rising inflation.