In the US, the Iran war has led to a clear increase in inflation, a trend also visible in the Eurozone. By contrast, the rise in inflation in Switzerland has been much more moderate thanks to the strong Swiss franc. Interestingly, the World Trade Organization is now anticipating growth of just +1.9% in global trade in 2026 compared to +4.6% in the prior year. This slowdown is not only a consequence of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but also the effects of higher US tariffs. The US economy remains the most dynamic worldwide, supported by rapidly increasing investments in infrastructure for artificial intelligence. China’s economy is also benefiting from the technology sector, in particular in exports and industrial production, while Europe continues to be constrained by weaker consumer sentiment.

Currencies

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) remains prepared, where necessary, to intervene on the currency market. Going forwards, however, it is likely to tolerate a gradual appreciation of the Swiss franc. The US dollar has relinquished some of the gains made since the outbreak of the conflict, reflecting improved market sentiment. Meanwhile, several sentiment indicators for the Eurozone economy have deteriorated again. Following a recovery in April, the economic environment is likely to limit any additional upside potential for the euro for the time being.

Bonds

The war in the Middle East has significantly altered interest rate expectations. For the US, inflation is currently expected to stand at 3.2% over a one-year horizon compared with 2.3% previously. Rising inflation is also expected for the Eurozone and Switzerland. This development is primarily being driven by the sharp increase in oil prices. In the US, the market expects key interest rates to remain unchanged up to the end of the year. In Europe, by contrast, it is anticipated that the European Central Bank (ECB) may even increase interest rates following the summer. Against this backdrop, capital market yields on both sides of the Atlantic have risen across almost the entire maturity spectrum since the outbreak of the conflict. Credit spreads, however, have moved very little overall, as companies remain very solidly positioned. We continue to maintain our tactical overweight position in bonds and have further reduced the duration. Accordingly, our portfolio now exhibits a shorter duration positioning relative to the benchmark.

TAA Balanced CHF

Real estate

Indirect real estate investments have been highly volatile over the past few months, in line with other asset classes. In particular, concerns about rising interest rates, as well as political issues (e.g. immigration-related debates and housing initiatives in Zurich) have contributed to uncertainty. From a technical standpoint, numerous listings as well as ongoing capital increases have created downward pressure on prices (increased supply, dilution effects, outflows from existing products and the repricing of previously high premiums). However, the price weakness relative to Swiss equities is likely to be short-lived and the fundamentally attractive risk-return profile compared with equities remains intact. As such, we are maintaining our slight overweight position.

Equities

On a monthly basis, global equities, as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index, rose markedly. The main driver was US equities, which account for approximately 62% of the index. The strong performance was supported by exceptionally good quarterly results: earnings growth in the S&P 500 stands at around 27% year on year and thus clearly above expectations. More than 83% of companies exceeded earnings estimates and, for the first time in four years, all sectors recorded positive earnings growth. European equities, including Swiss stocks, put in a slightly negative performance, however. Overall, corporate results were in line with historical averages and well below the strong levels seen in the US. Emerging markets also recorded a very strong performance, especially those markets with high exposure to artificial intelligence and semiconductors, such as South Korea and Taiwan. As expected, US equities with low volatility underperformed the broader global equity index, but did also benefit from the positive market trend in the US. We are maintaining our neutral weighting in equities.

Commodities

Commodities continued to show volatility over the past month. While precious metals came under pressure from growing inflation expectations and higher interest rates and were the only sector to put in a negative performance, industrial metals enjoyed modest gains. The energy sector performed most strongly, supported by the ongoing geopolitical stalemate surrounding Iran. Agricultural commodities also advanced, not least because higher oil prices are pushing up production costs in the agricultural sector. Over the medium term, commodity prices are unlikely to fall considerably. Nevertheless, we are maintaining our neutral positioning for the time being and would use any correction opportunistically to expand positions.

Private markets

Private market investments remain robust, especially in the private credit space. Institutional investors are continuing to demonstrate considerable interest and fundraising remains at historically high levels despite uncertainties in the software sector. Dislocations in the private credit space are expected to create attractive opportunities. M&A activity in the first quarter proved resilient despite geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty. 

Digital assets

Following its recent recovery, Bitcoin was once again unable to sustain a move above its 200-day moving average. This suggests that the crypto market remains in a consolidation phase. The USD 80,000 level continues to act as a key resistance zone. While there are currently no signs of significant sell-offs, ETF inflows lack a clear positive impulse. Against this background, we are maintaining a neutral weighting.

TAA Plus Balanced CHF

Contact a client advisor for more information.

^{This publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and is not geared to the conclusion of a contract. It only contains the market and investment commentaries of Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd. and an assessment of selected financial instruments. Consequently, this publication does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation, and is not an offer for the purchase or sale of investment instruments. Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd. does not provide legal or tax advice. In addition, Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoever for the content of this document; in particular, it does not accept any liability for losses of any kind, whether direct, indirect or incidental, which may be incurred as a result of using the information contained in this document and/or arising from the risks inherent in the financial markets. Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd. holds a Swiss banking license issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).}

Editorial deadline: 22 May 2026

Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd.
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T +41 44 286 25 25, info@maerki-baumann.ch
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