Invest selectively, diversify broadly

The global economy is proving resilient. The US continues to surprise with robust economic momentum, while the Eurozone is also recording moderate growth despite tariff-related pressures. While the US dollar is losing strength and the Swiss franc is hitting new record levels as a safe-haven currency, central banks remain in a holding pattern on interest rates. Equities remain constructive, bonds unattractive and real estate in demand. The environment is still rich in opportunities, but requires selectivity.

Since the beginning of the year, many US economic indicators have shown robust momentum on the other side of the Atlantic that has exceeded market expectations. The Eurozone economy has also improved, with the publication of gross domestic product figures for the final quarter of 2025 delivering a positive surprise that surpassed the market consensus. The Eurozone posted quarter-on-quarter growth of +0.3% despite US tariffs weighing on its export activities. The positive performance of the Eurozone economy was driven by private consumption and, in particular, by government spending. For 2026, even higher European government expenditure is expected, chiefly in connection with military rearmament initiatives.

Currencies

The US dollar once again found itself under pressure, indicating that the greenback is continuing to lose its status as the world’s reserve currency. At the same time, the Swiss franc has reaffirmed its role as a safe haven, reaching record levels against the euro.  The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has acknowledged that the situation remains “challenging” in light of price pressures. However, as long as the Swiss franc does not appreciate significantly further, the SNB is unlikely to intervene for the time being, much to the detriment of the export sector.

Bonds

The SNB is maintaining its zero interest policy and, despite the recent low inflation, sees no immediate need to return to negative interest rates. The European Central Bank (ECB) has left its key interest rate at 2% and has not yet implemented further cuts. This currently represents the longest pause in rates since the end of the negative interest rate era. The US key interest rate remains in the target range of 3.5% to 3.75% and was left unchanged at the most recent meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Following several interest rate cuts last year, the Fed has recently paused and is not signalling any further steps for the time being. The potential for further declines in interest rates is correspondingly low and return prospects on the bond market remain subdued. Credit spreads are currently historically tight or at record lows, particularly in investment-grade securities. We are therefore maintaining our underweight position in bonds and our slightly longer to neutral duration positioning.

TAA Balanced CHF

Real estate

Positive sentiment towards Swiss real estate remains intact, as reflected in the numerous announced capital increases. Low interest rates, high immigration and insufficient construction activity remain the fundamental drivers of this trend. Demand for indirect real estate investments is likely to remain robust. Swiss real estate funds continue to look more attractive than bonds and less volatile than equities. Current data therefore continues to justify an overweight position.

Equities

The equity markets remain in robust shape. Global equities have performed positively on the whole since the beginning of the year, although the persistent weakness of the US dollar has noticeably dampened returns in Swiss francs. The continued strong performance of the emerging markets, which have been outperforming many established markets for some time, remains striking. The reporting season in the US has been broadly encouraging, with a large proportion of companies delivering solid results and exceeding expectations. Particularly positive contributions came from the technology, industrial and communication services sectors. The global industrial sector has recently put in an impressive performance. Structural trends such as infrastructure investments and automation continue to provide supportive conditions. Value stocks have likewise performed robustly, supported by stable earnings growth and more defensive market segments. The Swiss equity market once again confirmed its role as a dependable investment region. Stability, resilient business models and long-term growth drivers characterise the landscape, both among large, established companies and within the small- and mid-cap segment.

Commodities

The commodities market has delivered a mixed picture since the beginning of the year. Precious metals have put in the strongest performance overall despite noticeable fluctuations. The energy sector has also delivered a robust performance and outpaced the broader market. Industrial metals have remained relatively stable, while the agricultural sector has lagged behind. On the gold market, there have recently been marked price movements, with a period of strong gains followed by a temporary correction, after which prices stabilised once more. The underlying environment remains largely unchanged, meaning that the overall trend is still solid.

Private markets

Following a phase of significant market adjustments and valuation normalisation, the environment for private markets has stabilised noticeably. With declining inflation and stabilising interest rates, the transaction environment has improved recently, particularly in the mid-market and in structural growth areas such as infrastructure and digitalisation. Geopolitical and fiscal risks remain present in 2026, but high levels of dry powder continue to support deal activity. Valuations are stabilising and exit markets are gradually reopening. We remain broadly diversified and are selectively focussing on high-quality assets with operational value-creation potential.

Digital assets

The crypto market is currently experiencing a phase of extreme uncertainty. Sentiment is in “extreme fear” territory, yet capital is beginning to rotate selectively into certain altcoins and strong ecosystems – not driven by broad euphoria, but due to specific narratives. In the short term, the US inflation report (PCE) is decisive, as it influences interest rate expectations and therefore liquidity prospects. Regulatory issues are also moving into focus, including the US CLARITY Act and the implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation. After hitting an all-time high in 2025, Bitcoin itself is undergoing a 40% to 50% correction, which has so far been regarded as orderly deleveraging. Technically, the market is consolidating between key support and resistance zones. In the short time, macro data is dominating, but the structural market story remains intact in the medium term.

TAA Plus Balanced CHF

Contact a client advisor for more information.

^{This publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and is not geared to the conclusion of a contract. It only contains the market and investment commentaries of Maerki Baumann & Co. AG and an assessment of selected financial instruments. Consequently, this publication does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation, and is not an offer for the purchase or sale of investment instruments. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG does not provide legal or tax advice. In addition, Maerki Baumann & Co. AG accepts no liability whatsoever for the content of this document; in particular, it does not accept any liability for losses of any kind, whether direct, indirect or incidental, which may be incurred as a result of using the information contained in this document and/or arising from the risks inherent in the financial markets. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG holds a Swiss banking license issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).}

Editorial deadline: 20 February 2026

Maerki Baumann & Co. AG
Dreikönigstrasse 6, CH-8002 Zurich
T +41 44 286 25 25, info@maerki-baumann.ch
www.maerki-baumann.ch